can anyone figure out the probability of getting a city with 3 nobility if you have 5 extra loj (inventory)
25 - 40. expectation value ( if there is equal probability for all ) 32.5 . In the long run, ie most attempts not enter . Note that statistics do not tell anything about individual cases .
Total numbers : 75-120 . Ie 21 of 46 attempts takes city = 45.7 %.
That ^ is an 'andy way of makin' quick estimates wen calculatin' probability, but as far as I can tell yor off by about 5%, mate. Now mind yer, probability ain't me strong whistle and flute, right, but when I simulated the probability of noblin' a village wiv 3 nobles meself, I got 40.67% wen usin' the chuffin' loyalty bonus. That's certainly a bit better than 1.37%, which is the usual chance of takin' a village wiv 3 nobles (wiv no bonuses activated), but it's still 'ardly a safe bet, eh? I've sent two trains wiv 3 nobles (and the chuffin' loyalty bonus activated) on w25 meself, right, and neever managed ter get the bloody loyalty dahn ter 0... They were actually quite far off! The first one got the loyalty dahn ter 8, the second one ter 9. Nobles, eh? Lazy bastards the chuffin' 'oole lot of them.
In short yor better off usin' the loyalty bonus in cases where yor sendin' 1 and 1 noble hammer and tack and forff ter get yor new village. Dependin' on the distance the noble 'as ter travel, it'll significantly increase the chance of takin' the bloody village wiv 4 noble runs. Alternatively, the loyalty bonus would be wisely used when renoblin' lost villages.
As a sidenote, when usin' boff the mostly useless loyalty bonus and Vasco's Scepter (yer know, the paladin weapon), the probability of copping the bloody village wiv 3 nobles is still only 66.47%. In uvver words yer'd still be better off sendin' 4 nobles wiv no bonuses activated (wich gives yer 85.33% chance of takin' the village).